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According to estimates from the US Census Bureau, the population of the City of El Paso decreased by 2,209 inhabitants from 2024 to 2025.
During the same period, the portion of El Paso County outside the city limits gained about 245 people.
According to a report by Bob Moore of El Paso Matters, El Paso saw the largest population decline of any Texas city and the seventh largest in the nation.
He suggests this trend stems from (1) rapidly declining birth rates, (2) less immigration from Mexico, and (3) young adults leaving El Paso for better economic opportunities.
Moore adds that private-sector wages in El Paso County are 38% below the Texas average and that the job growth rate is approximately half that of the state.
He interviewed UTEP Prof. Tom Fullerton, who speculated that “anti-trade movements” and the recent “immigration crackdown” are also factors in the population drop.
IGNORING THE GIANT PINK ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
In his analysis, Moore does not show that El Paso birth rates are declining faster than in the rest of Texas. He presents no statistics for the decrease in immigration from Mexico or the exodus of young adults from El Paso. Likewise, Fullerton does not quantify how federal trade and immigration policies impact El Paso.
As far as we can tell, it is all speculation.
Moore and apparently Fullerton ignore completely the gigantic pink elephant in the room: high taxation.
Our property tax is obscenely high and continues to rise as local governments pass one bloated budget after another. It is driving people from their homes, especially the poor and elderly.
There are no statistics for how many El Pasoans are fleeing for New Mexico, Arizona and other places because the property tax is lower, but we all know former neighbors who have moved to Santa Teresa, Las Cruces, etc. for this very reason.
That is why the New Mexico communities in close proximity to El Paso have seen their populations explode in the last 15 years. El Pasoans are moving there in droves.
Bob Moore, Mayor Johnson, Ricardo Samaniego, and their political allies do not want to discuss the direct relationship between high taxation and our demographic decline because it does not suit their political agenda. They will always cite other reasons and advocate for them publicly in order to distract us from the truth.
Fortunately, we are not that stupid and can see the giant pink elephant standing right in front of us.
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