El Paso County is on track to record its highest-ever early voting turnout for a midterm election, results of the first week of balloting indicate.
The surge in early voting is driven in part by people who haven’t been frequent voters in previous El Paso elections, according to an El Paso Matters analysis of county voting data. The hotly contested U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is the most prominent race on the ballot, but dozens of other statewide and local contests await El Paso voters.
Almost a third of people who cast early votes so far this year didn’t vote in El Paso in the last midterm in 2022. One in eight didn’t vote in El Paso in the 2024 presidential election.
Through seven days of early voting that ended Sunday, more than 95,000 El Paso County residents had cast ballots, or 18% of registered voters. That’s 78% more than the turnout at the same point of the last midterm election in 2022.
The biggest midterm early voting turnout to date in El Paso County was 2018, when El Paso’s Beto O’Rourke was the Democrats’ nominee to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. This year’s turnout through the first seven days of early voting is higher than 2018 at the same point.
El Paso’s turnout during the two midterm elections of Donald Trump’s presidencies, in 2018 and 2026, has been substantially higher than in other midterms.
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Most of the ballots this year have been cast by women, which is typical for El Paso. Women make up 51.5% of registered voters in El Paso and have accounted for 54% of early votes cast through Sunday.
People age 45 or older account for more than 70% of early votes cast so far, even though they make up less than half of registered voters in El Paso. That also is typical for El Paso elections.
However, younger El Paso voters have been more active than in past elections.
In the first seven days of early voting this year, El Paso voters ages 18-29 cast more than 11,000 ballots – more than that age group did in all 12 days of early voting in the last midterm election in 2022. That turnout also is higher than the 2024 presidential election through seven days of early voting, even though midterm election turnout by younger voters usually lags well behind presidential years.
More than 60% of the 18-29-year-old voters so far this year were women.
The 37% of voters 18-29 who cast primary ballots were 12 times more likely to vote in the Democratic contest than the Republican.
Much of the early voting turnout has been fueled by El Pasoans who also voted in the Democratic primary in March, in line with national polling that shows higher enthusiasm among that party’s supporters heading into the midterm election.
Both major parties shattered El Paso County turnout records for midterm primary elections in March, but so far Democrats have done a better job of returning their primary voters to the polls for the general election. About 60% of Democratic primary voters have already voted in the general election, compared to 50% of Republican primary voters.
Early voting continues through Friday, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
The two major party gubernatorial nominees, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, will visit El Paso this week in the waning days of the campaign. Democratic Senate nominee Talarico also will make an El Paso appearance.
The post Analysis: El Paso early voting surge puts midterm turnout record within reach appeared first on El Paso Matters.
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