With two days of early voting remaining in El Paso’s mayoral runoff election, turnout is well below the number of participants in the last such election in 2020.
The runoff between businessman Renard Johnson and city Rep. Brian Kennedy has drawn 13,000 fewer voters than at the same point of the 2020 runoff between Oscar Leeser and Dee Margo, both of whom had served as mayor. That’s a decrease of 41%.
The turnout is less than the June 2013 runoff between Leeser and then-city Rep. Steve Ortega, but higher than the June 2017 runoff between Margo and businessman David Saucedo. A City Charter amendment moved mayoral and City County elections from the spring of odd-numbered years to November of even-numbered years in 2020, with hopes of drawing higher voter turnout.
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Voters had eight days to cast early ballots in the 2017 runoff; nine days in 2013 and 2024; and 12 days in 2020.
The number of votes cast for mayor in the first round of voting – which now coincides with presidential elections – has increased since the change was made to the City Charter.
But it’s an open question whether runoffs draw more voters in December – between Thanksgiving and Christmas – than they did in late spring.
What the runoff turnout so far tells us
The electorate in the runoff this year is not only much smaller than the general election in November – more than 154,000 voters in the city of El Paso cast early ballots then – it’s also much older.
Almost two-thirds of votes as of Sunday were cast by people ages 65 or older. The average age of early voters in the Nov. 5 election was 53; the average age of runoff early voters through Sunday was 66.
So far, only 526 people under age 30 have voted in the runoff. By contrast, five times as many early voters – 2,692 – are age 80 or older.
About 52% of early voters so far are women, down from 55% in the first round of voting.
Although turnout is low throughout the city, an El Paso Matters analysis shows that it has been generally highest in precincts where Johnson prevailed on Nov. 5 in the eight-candidate race.
Johnson was the top vote getter in 157 of the 171 precincts in the El Paso city limits, though he didn’t win a majority in any. Kennedy came in first in the other 14, but also didn’t win a majority of votes in any precinct.
Johnson’s two highest vote totals on Nov. 5 were in Precinct 126 on the Eastside, where he lives, and Precinct 8, where Kennedy lives.
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In the first round of voting, Johnson led Kennedy in 40 of the 50 precincts with the most runoff votes as of Sunday, including leading by 10 or more points in half of those precincts. If precinct-level voting patterns in the runoff are similar to the first round of voting – which won’t be known until Dec. 14 – Johnson could be building a double-digit lead so far, the analysis shows.
In addition to the mayor’s race, voters in the city of El Paso will settle five City Council runoffs and one runoff for municipal court. Voters in Socorro have one City Council runoff.
Early voting continues Monday and Tuesday, with hours varying by polling place. Here’s a list of sites and their hours.
Election Day is Saturday, Dec. 14. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voters can cast ballots at any vote center in the county.
The post Older voters dominate as El Paso runoff early voting turnout sags appeared first on El Paso Matters.
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