EL PASO, Texas (KTSM) — Business leaders in the Borderland are breathing a sigh of relief after President Donald Trump agreed to delay tariffs on Mexican imports for at least a month, after Mexico pledged to deploy 10,000 soldiers to the border to help deter the trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S.
In exchange, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that the U.S. committed to helping deter the trafficking of high-powered firearms into Mexico.
Experts in business, politics, and law enforcement, however, said that the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the future of the conflict beyond the month of March.
“Uncertainty is the enemy of investment. So as long as there’s an air of uncertainty that exists over this tariff issue, there will be a freeze of foreign direct investment, potentially. We’re certainly seeing a delay of project decisions of companies that are looking to expand or relocate in our area,” said Jon Barela, CEO of the Borderplex Alliance.
With an increase of military presence at the border — first with Trump deploying about 1,500 new troops in the first week of his presidency and now with Mexican troops set to arrive in Ciudad Juarez soon — Barela said the presence of the military is not necessarily damaging business at the border. What is hurting is how some people are depicting life here, he said.
“This mischaracterization, whether it be in pop culture, whether it be in national news outlets, whether it be politicians that come here and take their obligatory photo-op in front of a wall and declare victory or defeat, one way or the other, that’s what hurts our job growth. That’s what hurts the optimization of our potential for job growth, because people sometimes don’t give us a second look because we are perceived as being a violent, lawless frontier, and there’s nothing further from the truth than that,” Barela said.
Meanwhile, Richard Pineda, Ph.D – the director of the Sam Donaldson Center for Communication Studies at UTEP – said that the Trump Administration will likely claim victory after getting the response from Mexico they were hoping for, but he questions whether the measures to address drug trafficking and immigration will actually succeed.
“I think there’s a little touch of political theater in so much as it (actually being) an enormous victory. At the end of the day, I think it’s going to be very hard to quantify how much the placement of the Mexican National Guard is going to impact the flow of narcotics or immigrants. But I think that from the White House’s perspective, I think this is what they wanted. They essentially barked out a command and got that response from the Mexican government,” Pineda said.
Pineda said the deployment of Mexican troops to the border has been done in the past without it effectively cutting into the flow of fentanyl and other drugs into the U.S.
Pineda said that the fact that the tariffs were only delayed by one month shows that the policy was “poorly” thought out by the Trump Administration, with a lack of deeper strategic vision to address drug trafficking and immigration. He also doubts this aggressive negotiating approach by Trump will bear successful results in the long run.
“If you’re the Mexican government, the concern is going to be that in one month, you get hit with another threat of a tariff. And now it’s a different kind of a condition. You’ll need to do X, Y or Z. I think that’s why this is a sort of difficult way to negotiate and to engage in diplomatic relationships because essentially, this is very much like the hammer, in trying to get things done,” Pineda said.
However, Robert Almonte, a former U.S. marshal and retired deputy chief for the El Paso Police Department, said the collaboration between the U.S. and Mexico could be effective, despite some challenges for each of them to hold up their end of the bargain.
“This is good news for both countries. I’m glad they reached an agreement. We need to work together to solve these problems,” Almonte said. “I think what needs to happen is we need to increase our enforcement (of) southbound traffic at the border and inspect more vehicles, because that’s how (firearms) are getting across to Mexico. They’re hidden in these vehicles,” Almonte said.
Almonte said federal agencies at ports of entry could use similar technology and tactics used to detect criminals trying to cross into the United States to assess traffic coming southbound into Mexico.
Almonte added that the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms and Explosives (ATF), could ramp up enforcement efforts to prevent firearms from ending up in the wrong hands.
“ATF also needs to increase their effort, by spot checking a lot of the gun dealers throughout the United States and make sure they’re following the law and are not selling weapons to people that shouldn’t have the weapons,” Almonte said.
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