EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) – The amount of cash Mexico received last year from its citizens abroad reached another record. At $64.7 billion, remittances remained one of that country’s primary sources of income in 2024 and just under 4% of its gross domestic product.
But trouble may be brewing in a horizon clouded by threats of U.S. tariffs, inflation and law enforcement pressure on Mexican immigrants, and new rules to scrutinize who wires what money to whom outside of the United States.
Remittances fell for a second consecutive month in February, according to Banxico – Mexico’s central bank. They went to from $5.2 billion in December, to $4.66 billion in January and $4.45 billion in February. The average remittance also is down from $393 last year to $383 in the first two months of 2025.
Economist Gabriela Siller Pagaza of Nuevo Leon-based Grupo Financiero BASE attributes that to three factors. “The bad news regarding February remittances is due to a decline in the U.S. labor market, the depreciation of the peso and fear of going out because of the possibility of being deported,” she said on X.
The U.S. and Mexico are each other’s top trading partners. The conventional wisdom is that when the American economy sneezes, Mexico catches a cold.
U.S. inflation hitting ‘paisanos’
If Mexicans working in the United States aren’t sending to their families in Mexico as much money as in prior years it is because their cost of living has gone up.
“It’s obvious that a migrant (worker), even if in the United States illegally, will be earning more than four years ago,” said Alejandro Sandoval, president of Juarez’s Association of Finance Executives.
That means immigrants working as gardeners, cooks or even in an office should be sending more money to relatives in Mexico – not less, he said.
“The problem is going to the supermarket where everything is more expensive because of inflation, going to a restaurant where everything is more expensive. […] Those are the factors influencing this,” Sandoval said.
Analysts also believe those who are in the U.S. illegally may be skipping work due to rumors of immigration raids or cutting down trips to shopping centers where they usually wire money home.
That means the so-called paisanos, or countrymen, have less money to live on and send home – in addition to potential labor shortages for some low-wage industries here, according to groups like America’s Voice.
Treasury to scrutinize remittances
As part of the Trump administration’s ongoing crackdown on transnational criminal organizations, a federal agency is planning to step up scrutiny of money transfer services along the Southwest border to combat money laundering.
The March 11 Treasury Department’s Geographic Targeting Order mandates its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to require businesses in 30 ZIP codes from Texas to California to file reports for currency transactions between $200 and $10,000. That includes documenting who is giving them the cash.
“This GTO underscores our deep concern with the significant risk to the U.S. financial system of the cartels, drug traffickers, and other criminal actors along the Southwest border,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “As part of a whole-of-government approach to combatting the threat, Treasury remains focused on leveraging all our available tools and authorities to better identify and counter these criminal activities.”
Customers will have to provide Social Security numbers or other forms of official information; someone who’s not a U.S. citizen or legal resident must show his or her country’s passport.
NPR reported businesses in South Texas fear foreigners may be reluctant to provide information fearing it could be used to track them or deny them future legal entry.
The most popular means of sending remittances from the U.S. to Mexico are electronic transfers.
Ten border businesses have sued over the regulation.
ProVideo in Juarez, Mexico, contributed to this report.
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