Facing newly heightened immigration enforcement and longstanding challenges holding on to people already living here, El Paso County’s population dropped by just over 2,000 people in 2025, according to Census Bureau estimates released Thursday.
El Paso County’s estimated population on July 1, 2025, was 877,8558, according to the estimates, down from 879,894 a year earlier.
Only 14 of the nation’s 3,143 counties saw a larger population decline than El Paso, according to the estimates. Neighboring Doña Ana County in New Mexico added about 1,000 people between 2024 and 2025, bringing the estimated population to 229,091.
The population decline continues the sluggish population trend El Paso County has seen since 2012, when the Army completed its expansion of Fort Bliss. The county’s population has grown by just over 5% in the past 13 years, according to Census Bureau estimates.
The Census Bureau estimates show changes in three main demographic components that shape population change: natural growth, or the difference between births and deaths; net international migration, or the movement of people from one country to another; and net domestic migration, the movement of people between counties in the United States. The estimates also include what is known as a residual estimate, which is for population changes where the cause isn’t clear.
The 2025 population estimates, which also include revisions to estimates from prior years, show a 95% decline in net international migration between 2024 and 2025, likely driven by increased immigration enforcement that began when President Donald Trump took office Jan. 20, 2025.
The net international migration numbers between 2022 and 2024 – more than 14,000 in total – were higher than any other three-year period this century. Those years were marked by a significant surge of immigrants that came to the U.S.-Mexico border from Central and South America.
Net immigration to El Paso for the entire decade of 2010-2019 was just over 16,000.
Immigration to El Paso also slowed from 2017 to 2020, during the years of the first Trump administration.
SEE ALSO: Births in El Paso County drop 5% in 2025 as long-term population shifts deepen
El Paso County continues to see far more people moving out to other U.S. counties than moving in. Average wages in El Paso County, particularly in the private sector, are well below the state and national averages.
The biggest driver of El Paso’s population changes continues to be the impact of sharply declining birth rates and an aging population, which has resulted in a rapid slowing of natural population growth as births decrease and deaths increase.
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El Paso’s birth rate is declining at twice the national rate, even though El Paso’s population is younger than the nation’s on average. Deaths have increased in recent years, due to a combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and an aging population.
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