El Paso’s school enrollment challenge is being driven by a combination of declining birth rates and children moving away from the county with their parents, new census population estimates indicate.
The number of El Paso County residents ages 5-18 declined by almost 12,000 between 2020 and 2025, or 6.6%, according to an El Paso Matters analysis of U.S. Census Bureau population estimates. That is in line with Texas Education Agency data that showed enrollment declined in county school districts and charter schools by about 10,000 in that period. The enrollment numbers don’t include private schools or children educated at home.
School enrollment has a lot of moving parts because of changes in birth rates and children moving in and out of a given county. The census estimates don’t include estimates for changes due to birth or migration, but other demographic data suggests that while much of the change is due to the decrease in births, some is because more children are leaving El Paso than moving here.
The number of children born to parents living in El Paso between 2007 and 2019 – which would roughly coincide with the age 5 to 18 population census estimate for 2025 – declined by more than 9,600 from the period between 2002 and 2014, which would correspond with the school-age population in 2020.
The number of El Paso County children ages 5-18 in the 2025 population estimate was 2,600 fewer than the corresponding 0-13 age cohort in the 2020 census, the El Paso Matters analysis showed. A small number of that decrease would be attributed to childhood mortality, but most of it would be caused by more children moving out of El Paso than moving in between 2020 and 2025.
The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday released new county population estimates that included information on age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. About 83% of the county’s population in 2025 was Hispanic, unchanged from the 2020 census.
The Census Bureau had earlier released total population estimates for counties and cities, which showed declines in El Paso’s population between 2024 and 2025.
El Paso’s population is aging
The decline in the number of school-age children is an important factor in the overall aging of El Paso’s population. The median age in the county – meaning half the population was younger and half older – rose by 1.1 years between 2020 and 2025. That’s slightly higher than the national change of 0.9 years in the same period.
The median age for men in El Paso County grew by 1.6 years over the five-year period, compared with 1 year for women.
As is typically the case in populations, the number of males in El Paso County exceeds the number of females until the mid-30s, then becomes increasingly female as the population ages.
For a variety of biological factors, about 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. But women live, on average, about five to six years longer than men.
In El Paso County, men reach their highest percentage of the overall population between ages 20 and 29, making up 53% of that age group. That’s driven by the impact of the 29,000 soldiers at Fort Bliss, about 85% of whom are men.
Among El Paso County residents ages 65 and older, 57% are women.
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