EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) – Three out of five newly arrived migrants have found jobs in the United States and are contributing to the growth of the economy, according to a study released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The Dallas Fed used annual census population surveys, Congressional Budget Office data and other resources to come up with its projections. They show the foreign-born population in the U.S. surged by 2.6 million in 2022 and was projected to increase by another 3.3 million in both 2023 and 2024.
“The boost to gross domestic product and employment from the recent increase in population growth is considerable,” the researchers wrote. “Over the past year, the immigration wave contributed to higher GDP growth by adding nearly 2 million newly employed workers. (This) likely occurred with very little effect on inflation.”
The Dallas Fed says 60 percent of recent arrivals from other countries have made a quick transition from processing centers to work sites in the American communities they now call home.
“The mechanics of the higher growth rate are straightforward: If immigration increases population by 1 percent and these newcomers integrate into the labor force at rates comparable to native-born citizens, employment and output expand immediately,” the researchers said.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is part of the Federal Reserve System – the central bank of the United States.
Immigration advocates for years have echoed the themes raised by the Dallas Fed’s newest findings.
“Immigration strengthens the U.S. economy and contributes to greater prosperity for all Americans,” FWD.us, a political advocacy organization that bills itself as being bipartisan, said in a policy brief last March. “Immigrants help create jobs, raise wages, reduce inflation and increase productivity and innovation.”
Others argue the economic impact of newly arrived migrants on the U.S. economy is not as straightforward as advocates say.
“Illegal immigrants actually have high rates of work and they do pay some taxes, including income and payroll taxes,” Steven A. Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, said in prepared testimony to a House subcommittee in January. “The fundamental reason illegal immigrants are a net drain is they have a low average education level which results in low average earnings and tax payments.”
Camarota testified that a “large share” of new arrivals qualify for welfare programs, some due to U.S.-born children, and that their tax contributions “do not come close” to covering services rendered, such as uninsured medical care and the free education their non-citizen children receive.
But the Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit Brookings Institution concurs with the Dallas Fed’s assessment on the positive impact of recent immigrants.
“Faster population and labor force growth has meant employment could grow more quickly than previously believed, without adding to inflationary pressures,” Brookings said in research published last March. “Greater immigration has likely resulted in greater consumer spending [….] If immigration trends continue at high levels in 2024, employment growth and economic activity will likely continue to be affected.”
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