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El Chuqueño Blog – An Economic Forecast

Posted on August 22, 2025

Here’s part of an editorial from El Diario de Juarez:1

Ayer informamos que, a tasa mensual, la producción de la maquila en Ciudad Juárez cayó siete por ciento en junio.

Sin embargo, cuando son revisados los datos a una ventana de dos años, la magnitud del retroceso es todavía más severa. En junio de 2023, el gasto en insumos directos alcanzó 77 mil 319 millones de pesos, de acuerdo con cifras del INEGI. Para junio de 2025, ese monto bajó a 43 mil 905 millones, lo que significa una reducción de 43.2 por ciento en el nivel de producción.

Se trata de una caída monumental que explica también la pérdida de alrededor de 64 mil empleos en el mismo lapso, pues la menor compra de insumos inevitablemente se traduce en menos producción y, por lo tanto, en menor necesidad de mano de obra.

El impacto no se queda en la maquila: menos insumos y menos empleos significan menos derrama económica para la ciudad, afectando a proveedores, comercios y servicios.

La tendencia confirma que Juárez atraviesa una fase de ajuste estructural en su principal motor económico, con consecuencias directas sobre el mercado laboral y el consumo local.

What that means in barroom English is that the maquilas in Juarez are buying 43% less production material than they were in 2023. 43% fewer circuit boards and ball bearings, 43% less plastic and copper wire. Employment in Ciudad Juarez is down by 64,000 workers over the same time period. Fewer materials, fewer workers. The maquila business in Ciudad Juarez is on the slide. And fewer paychecks hurts every business in Juarez.

And a loss of Mexican spending power is just another economic headwind El Paso is facing. Those on-again-off-again tariffs, and the uncertainty around them, will choke El Paso.

Wait till ICE starts the purge. Wait till ICE comes for the undocumented residents. Wait till ICE starts knocking on the doors of all the Green Card holders with DWIs, or even lower level charges.

Fortunately El Paso’s main industry is government, and government is immune to economic downturns.

More the pity.

  1. https://diario.mx/opinion/2025/aug/21/querian-mas-que-revisar-armas-a-escoltas-1081128.html
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