ABILENE, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – As this El Niño period continues to chug along with purpose, an important question is being asked: Will Texas end the 2023 year with snow? Well, climate forecasters have some idea for an answer already outlined. But, just like many far-out futurecasts, most details are still up in the air.
According to the latest El Niño update from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), forecasters expect El Niño to continue over the next several months with a 62% chance of lasting through June of 2024. That does increase the potential for a strong El Nino event.
The strength of an El Niño event matters because the stronger the event, the more likely we’ll see the characteristic changes in temperature, rain, snow, and other impacts.
It doesn’t necessarily mean the impacts themselves will be so much stronger, but it makes the expected El Niño impacts more likely to happen.
With three weeks out until the start of the winter season, we can look at some of El Niño’s potential effects on Northern Hemisphere temperature and rain and snow closer to that time.
As of Tuesday, November 28, El Niño has met the threshold for a ‘strong’ event. The August–October Oceanic Niño Index is the official ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) indicator for NOAA.
The index measures the 3-month average sea surface temperature in the east-central tropical Pacific, also known as the so-called Niño-3.4 region. That region was 1.5° Celsius above the long-term average (1991–2020).
Forecasters at the CPC took note of the potential for a strong El Niño back in April, before El Niño had even arrived in this June. Currently, forecasters estimate a greater than 55% chance that El Niño will remain above that threshold for strong through next March.
Temperatures over 2.0° C (35.6° F) is considered ‘very strong’ or ‘historically strong.’ There is about a one in three chance that the Oceanic Niño Index could reach 2.0 °C, which has happened only four times before in our 73-year record: 1972-73, 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16.
So, what does this have to do with us here in the Texas? Per the latest El Niño update, the 3-month outlooks have adjusted accordingly:
The temperature outlook lines up pretty well with strong El Niño conditions. Just as expected, the northern half of the country is trending warmer than normal during the winter.
For the southern half of the country, we are looking at seasonal conditions especially here in Texas, which has a near normal projection for most of the state. The rest of the south is looking at equal chances for both below and above average temperatures, ultimately meaning near average as well.
The precipitation outlook is about as ideal as can be for El Niño conditions:
Pretty much the entire southern half of the US is leaning towards above average rainfall, especially over to the southeast. Folks shere are almost certain to see an increase in rainfall.
Here in the Texas, most of the eastern portion of the state is projected to get more precipitation and the western part of Texas has equal chances of having above or below normal amounts of rainfall. As of now, it seems we won’t get too much more rainfall than normal but the fact that we have an increased chance is promising enough.
For our northern states, as expected, they will be drier than normal during the winter months. This does not mean they won’t receive anything, but they won’t receive quite so much as usual.
The equation right now, most of Texas is near average temperatures with slightly above average rainfall chances. If temperatures are seasonal, we should stay warm enough to not encounter any snow. However, if temperatures do drop because of a front, snow would be a topic.
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