(NEXSTAR) – In its storied 151-year history, there is an infamous starting gate number that has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
The gate numbers, known as post positions, are decided by a random drawing. Betting odds shift based on where horses start and how they respond to certain posts, according to Covers.com, with the biggest swings often for No. 1 – which hasn’t seen a winner since 1986 – and the outermost positions.
While post position 5 has had the best record with 10 winners, the most recent being Always Dreaming in 2017, post position 17 is the only one that hasn’t produced a single first-place finish.
But could this be the year the curse ends? Sandman, ridden by highly-regarded jockey Jose L. Ortiz, was initially assigned post position 17 with enviable 5-1 odds, according to Twinspires.com. That changed, however, when two horses, Grande and Rodriguez were scratched late in the week, moving Chunk of Gold, at 30-1, into the 17th position, according to Covers.
The 3-year-old gray/roan colt finished second consecutively in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, according to the Derby’s profile. “With his closing running style, proven stamina, and improving form, Chunk of Gold profiles as an interesting longshot candidate for the Kentucky Derby.”
The odds-on favorite to win the Derby, Journalism, has 3-1 odds as of Friday afternoon. Journalism will be running from post 7, which has seen eight winners, including Mandaloun in 2021.
See the complete number of wins by post position below:
| Post | Record (entries-win-place-show) | Win % | Avg. Finish | Last Winner | Last Top 5 |
| 1 | 95-8-5-5 | 8.4% | 8.20 | Ferdinand (1986) | Hit Show (5th, 2023) |
| 2 | 95-7-6-13 | 7.4% | 8.13 | Affirmed (1978) | Sierra Leone (2nd, 2024) |
| 3 | 95-6-8-8 | 6.3% | 8.19 | Mystik Dan (2024) | Mystik Dan (1st , 2024) |
| 4 | 95-5-6-4 | 5.3% | 8.72 | Super Saver (2010 | Catching Freedom (4th, 2024) |
| 5 | 95-10-8-4 | 10.5% | 7.45 | Always Dreaming (2017) | Improbable (4 th, 2019) |
| 6 | 95-2-8-3 | 2.1% | 9.55 | Sea Hero (1993) | O Besos (4th, 2021) |
| 7 | 94-8-6-6 | 8.5% | 7.87 | Mandaloun (2021) | Mandaloun (1st, 2021) |
| 8 | 94-9-5-5 | 9.6% | 8.57 | Mage (2023) | Mage (1 st, 2023) |
| 9 | 91-4-6-8 | 4.4% | 8.63 | Riva Ridge (1972) | Disarm (4th, 2023) |
| 10 | 88-9-6-11 | 10.2% | 7.72 | Giacomo (2005) | T O Password (JPN) (5th, 2024) |
| 11 | 84-2-6-4 | 2.4% | 9.06 | Winning Colors (1988) | Forever Young (JPN) (3rd, 2024) |
| 12 | 80-3-3-4 | 3.8% | 9.60 | Canonero II (1971) | Angel of Empire (3rd, 2023) |
| 13 | 78-5-5-7 | 6.4% | 8.24 | Nyquist (2016) | Simplification (4 th, 2022) |
| 14 | 68-2-6-6 | 2.9% | 9.21 | Carry Back (1961) | Essential Quality (3rd, 2021) |
| 15 | 63-6-2-1 | 9.5% | 10.22 | Authentic (2020) | Authentic (1st, 2020) |
| 16 | 52-4-3-3 | 7.7% | 10.27 | Animal Kingdom (2011) | Honor A. P. (4th, 2020) |
| 17 | 45-0-1-2 | 0.0% | 11.24 | Don’t Get Mad (4th, 2005) | |
| 18 | 37-2-4-0 | 5.4% | 9.43 | Country House (2019) | Country House (1 st, 2019) |
| 19 | 31-1-1-0 | 3.2% | 12.32 | I’ll Have Another (2012) | Wicked Strong (4th, 2014) |
| 20 | 19-2-0-1 | 10.5% | 11.05 | Rich Strike (2022) | Rich Strike (1st, 2022) |
While gamblers might tend to shy away from certain posts, not everyone is convinced that 17 is the burden its underwhelming record suggests.
Horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey told NBC that he would actually prefer the 17th post to some of the inner positions, and suspects the miserable win-loss record is just a statistical anomaly.
“I don’t really think the outside posts are a disadvantage, even though the statistics tell us otherwise,” Dempsey said. “If I liked a horse to win a race and then he drew that 17, 18, or 19 post, that wouldn’t sway me.”
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