(NewsNation) — Quick ballot counts could cause Election Day mirages, and they may not be good indicators of whether either party candidate will win.
An Election Day “red” or “blue mirage” is when a candidate leads early after the polls close until other methods of votes are counted.
NewsNation’s political editor, Chris Stirewalt, says that what appears to be shifts in voting patterns through election night is actually just a predictable pattern based on how different areas count their votes.
“It doesn’t matter which piece you put in, first or last in a puzzle. It doesn’t change the picture. The image remains the same,” Stirewalt said.
It’s important to wait until all ballots are counted because the swing states tend to sway both ways throughout the day.
Is the red mirage happening now?
Former President Donald Trump had an early lead right after polls started closing on the East Coast.
The red mirage phenomenon is an expectation that Republican voters are more likely to cast their ballots in person, whereas Democrats are more likely to vote by mail. That dynamic can result in GOP candidates seeing an early lead that later fades as mail-in ballots are counted.
Rural areas count their votes faster since they have fewer ballots to process, less crowded precincts and shorter lines. “The Hill Sunday” host described how vote counting moves from “outside in,” starting with rural areas, then moving through suburbs and finally reaching dense urban centers.
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“The less populous parts of the country count faster because the precincts aren’t as crowded,” Stirewalt said. “There aren’t as many ballots to count in individual places, and the lines aren’t as long in all of these places.”
In Virginia, despite Trump leading in raw vote totals, the remaining votes are from Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Henrico counties.
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